It's May 3 on the calendar, and the Cardinals are only 25 games into the schedule. But I'd like to submit this question: In the National League Central, who can take this team down?Seriously, unless the Chicago Cubs start putting together some long winning streaks, this race could turn into Secretariat at the 1973 Belmont. A horse named "Sham" tried to get out and run with Secretariat but couldn't hang on. Secretariat won by 31 lengths. The Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Pirates and Astros might want to go to youtube.com and watch what happened to poor Sham.
After a 6-1 home stand, the Cardinals are 17-8 and have a 4 1/2-game lead in the mediocre Central. That is, by far, the biggest lead by a first-place team in the majors. And what will change? Unless the Cardinals are struck by catastrophic injuries, I don't see how the five Shams keep pace.
Yes, baseball is a humbling game and teams must pass a test on a daily basis. That's why baseball offers a truer sense of quality than the other team sports. And the Cardinals will endure some turbulent stretches. All teams do.
It happened a year ago, as a matter of fact. The Cardinals were exactly 17-8 after 25 games, same as now. And then their season took a detour; the 2009 Cardinals lost 10 of 14 and found themselves in third place on May 18, three games behind the Brewers. It was a temporary phase, as the Cardinals (91-71) would go on to capture the NL Central by 7 1/2 games.
And that 4-10 slide can be explained. Chris Carpenter was on the disabled list at the time, and the starting pitching unraveled, with a 6.27 ERA over those 14 games. But everything settled down soon enough, and the Cardinals got back on track.
The 2009 Cardinals had more holes than an updated, upgraded 2010 version. So there's no reason to deny the obvious here: The Cardinals have taken control of this division. And nothing suggests they'll ease up and give it back.
Pujols is right. Anything can happen. The Cardinals will slump at some point. And no division race — ever — is locked up in the early days of May, June or July. But that doesn't change the premise or the question: Give us the name of the NL Central team capable of sticking and staying with the Cardinals?
The Cubs have the best shot because of their tough starting pitching. And a few of their lineup regulars, including Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, will probably heat up. If the Cardinals inexplicably fall apart or choke, the Cubs come closest among division rivals to having a complete team. And they can take advantage.
But as long as the Cardinals stay reasonably healthy, I don't think they will collapse. The starting pitching will prevent that. Their rotation's ERA is 2.55, and 1.60 at home. There's Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse — not a fluke among them. This rotation has the stuff that terminates losing streaks.
And if anything, the St. Louis offense will rev it up from here on out. Matt Holliday hasn't gone on an extended tear, and he will. Third baseman David Freese is beginning to hit for power. Shortstop Brendan Ryan's offensive game was jump-started by manager Tony La Russa's decision to bat the pitcher eighth. Ryan, who prefers hitting ninth, has responded to the change.
Smugness won't be a factor, either. La Russa doesn't let up. And the team's two primary leaders, Pujols and Carpenter, are hardwired for maximum competitiveness. They set the example.
Sunday at Busch Stadium, Pujols backed up Carpenter's shutout pitching by putting the game away with a late three-run double that clinched a 6-0 victory. Giving away at-bats isn't in Pujols' makeup.
And in allowing only two hits and no runs in dominating the Reds for seven innings, Carpenter was a figure of controlled rage. It's fascinating to watch him go into psycho mode out there; Carpenter's starts become extended sessions of primal-scream therapy.
When he pitches, Carpenter can be a scary individual, at least to other teams. Sunday, after striking out pinch-hitter Jonny Gomes to end the seventh, Carpenter started barking in Gomes' direction.
Except that Carpenter didn't remember doing it. "I have no idea," he said. And I believe him. On game days, the killer-Carp personality overtakes the calmer, warmer side of Carpenter's nature.
"I don't direct anything to anybody unless they disrespect me, my teammates or the game," Carpenter said. "But this game is really, really important to me. It's done a lot for me. It's done a lot for my family. As much as I've been through, I don't take any start for granted, 'cause I never know when it's going to end. And I love doing it. I really do. And I love everybody in this clubhouse and I don't like anybody I play against when I'm between the lines. That's just the way it is. It's super, super important to me."
No, complacency won't be an issue in the NL Central.
With La Russa, Carpenter, Pujols and catcher Yadier Molina, there's no backing off with this psycho bunch. The other Cardinals follow the leaders.
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